BREXIT – THE DEAD DECIDE, THE YOUNG MUST ABIDE?

Figures for the 2016 Brexit Referendum unto 2020

UK electorate @ EU Referendum 46.5 million + @ June 2017 General Election 46.8 million

2016 Turnout: 72.1%:

  • Leave: 17,410,742 @ 51.89%

  • Remain: 16,141,241 @ 48.11%

  • Did Not Vote: 12,948,018

  • Not Eligible 18,099,099 (under 18, foreign but long-term resident, etc)

Breakdown by Age (700,000 births annually, 530,000 deaths annually, 8% under 55 + 6% 55-65 + 86% 65+):

  • Under 24: 64% @ 71% Remain + 29% Leave +448,000 annually onto electorate

  • 24-54: 65.5% turnout and 55-64: 72% turnout

  • 65+: 90% voted @ 64% Leave + 36% Remain -410,200 annually off electorate

Annual Change (assuming no living person under 24 or over 65 changes their vote):

  • The old people die. Leave down 64% of 410,200 + Remain down 36% of 410,200 = Leave -262,540 + Remain -147,679

  • Young enter the electorate. Remain up 71% of 448,000 + Leave up 29% of 448,000 = Leave +129,920 + Remain +313,820

  • LEAVE -132,620 REMAIN +166,141 annually = +298,761 swing to Remain annually

Referendum by Date (assuming NO change in turnout or vote choice for any under 18-24 or 65+):

  • June 2017 = 17278122 Leave v 16307382 Remain

  • June 2018 = 17145502 Leave v 16473523 Remain

  • December 2018 = 17079192 Leave v 16557594 Remain

  • June 2019 = 17012882 Leave v 16640665 Remain

  • June 2020 = 16880262 Leave v 16806806 Remain

  • July 2020 = 16869210 Leave v 16820651 Remain

  • September 2020 = 16847107 Leave v 16834496 Remain

Contrary to reports in some of the media, there wouldn’t be a REMAIN win until September 2020 based on the figures and natural births and deaths and new voters coming of age versus old voters dying and the same turnout and nobody changing their vote.

The so-called backstop agreement comes into force – or the whole Brexit is supposedly wrapped up – by December 2020. This is the point an EU Referendum would cross over 51% Remain, 49% Leave. Shouldn’t that matter?

The dead shouldn’t be deciding the world everyone else is doomed to lives through.

Published by: ubercynic.com

The ubercynic is a cynician, if you will. Cynicians have lately proven surprisingly antagonistic to those sententious voices most committed to amplifying contemporary opinion. “In cyberspace, nobody can hear you dream."

Categories perspectives, politicsTags