Voting intentions surveyed since ITV Debate so far 21-Nov-2019:
– Opinium: Con +19
– BMG: Con +13
– YouGov: Con +12
– Panelbase: Con +10
I don’t know what’ll happen on the 12th. It’s very difficult to get a decent feel for what the majority of the self-sabotaging suckers in the UK are being hoodwinked by versus how much reality is getting through. England polls show a big lead for Boris. This was similar, if a bit less, back in strong and stable 2017. Polling companies are dodgy. Corbyn isn’t popular with the media, left or right. But who knows how effective media hit pieces on Corbyn or ‘get Brexit done’ smokescreening for Boris actually is.
Reporting is very lazy too. But from what I can see, the SNP are gonna clean up in Scotland, and the DUP vote reduced in NI plus they’re not backing Boris. This is -20 to -25 seats lost to the gov’t for a start. Will they gain that or more in England? Hmm.
Farage has done his bit as the populism gateway drug then BXP standing down mostly gathers the Brexit voters, the right wing, the unthinking or habitual or Corbyn-fearing Tories, all for Boris. Tory manifesto vague smoke and mirrors, no ideology to oppose. All bets on the Boris, Brexit, BNP union.
Against this simple practical cynical faith in the country being full of dumb bigots, the opposition is doing its usual shit. Labour struggling to get a “we are going to help you, for fuck sake!” message through.
LibDems doing the most to once again enable the Tories to win a majority despite the country being majority OPPOSED to everything the Conservatives stand for. Swinson is yet another grasping fool being played into a daft extremist position that’s unelectable but as a Remain protest vote maximises harm to Labour.
I guess if I had to bet I’d bet LibDem get enough swing to topple dozens of Labour seats and split opposition votes in enough seats to hand them Tory. Tory majority of 20-40. But I dunno. There’s still weeks to go. What do you think will play out?